Israel is the First Loser in Confrontation with Iran and its Allies

There is no doubt that the strike carried out by the Israeli colony against Iran today is a powerful one, representing a significant tactical victory—both psychologically and practically—and much will unfold from it in the future.

There is also no doubt that the Israeli colony appears stronger today, as it has managed to neutralize many of its enemies.

However, the colony will not emerge from these wars and aggressions the same as it was before, for the following reasons:

1. For the first time since the 1948 war, the conflict has entered inside the occupied land of Palestine. Israel’s strategy since the 1956 war has been to keep battles on its enemies’ lands. Even in the most intense war it faced in 1973, not a single bullet was fired within the borders of occupied Palestine.
Now, however, the situation has changed. Attacks on the occupation from within occupied Palestinian territory have become acceptable and expected. While these attacks come at a cost to Israel’s enemies, Israel has lost a major point of superiority.

To understand the impact of this, consider the example of Nazi Germany: it achieved massive tactical victories across Europe, occupying most of the continent, and remained superior to its enemies—its cities virtually untouched.
But that changed in March 1942 with the massive bombing of Cologne. After that, the German people began to experience the real meaning of war.
The point here is that the shift of the battlefield into occupied territory is a long-term strategic loss.

2. Israel’s aggressions against several Arab and Muslim countries—though largely accepted by the Christian West—undermine a global order that the West and America built after World War II. This will lead to increasing rebellion among countries of the Global South, just as the Western system itself is weakening.

Israel –the occupying power– is the frontline outpost of this Western system. Though it holds tactical importance, it is often the first to be sacrificed.
The Persian Empire sacrificed the Kingdom of Al-Hirah, and the Romans sacrificed the Ghassanids—such is the fate of proxy states.
Ultimately, two factors will determine Israel’s fate: the strength of its supporting power and the cost of that support. History tells us that Western power is in decline for both internal and external reasons.

Hence, former colonial powers like France, Spain, Belgium, and Italy are beginning to recoil from Israel’s arrogance.

3. Major wars are usually followed by social change. After World War II, Western society shifted toward greater liberalism (not necessarily by the will of its ruling elites).

These ongoing, major wars between Israel and its enemies will likewise be followed by significant social transformations once the dust settles—most likely against the colonial project. This happened with Britain, France, and Germany—all of which were far stronger than the Zionist colony.
It even happened in Egypt after the wars of 1967 and 1973, in Iraq after two devastating wars, and is happening now in Syria.

The Zionist colony will undoubtedly face major internal problems once the battle smoke clears. Most likely, history will repeat itself—as it did after the fall of Solomon’s kingdom and the Hasmonean kingdom—where collapse began internally before being completed externally.

4. When strong powers clash, the weak may find strength in their weakness.
This is what we are witnessing now between two forces that have long wreaked havoc in the region. Israel drained the resources of Arab countries like Egypt, Syria, Jordan, Lebanon, and of course Palestine. Iran, likewise, drained Arab and Islamic countries like Iraq, Syria, Yemen, eastern Arabia, Lebanon, and Afghanistan. Now that their interests have collided, the powerful are wearing each other down. Neither will emerge from the arena unscathed, while the worn-down Arab and Islamic forces—though seemingly submissive politically and officially—are recovering on the popular level, filled with bitterness and gaining experience.

This is what happened to Britain, France, and Germany after WWII. They all came out depleted, and the inheritance passed on to nations that were once their colonies.

5. Even if Israel emerges victorious in this round, it will do so with the image of a fierce, brutal victor—a bleak image for such a small society.
This would be a triumph of the sword, not of values (even if those values were false, like the West’s post-WWII promotion of democracy). Japan, a small nation, once conquered large swaths of South Asia—including China, Korea, and Vietnam—but its victory only lasted as long as it held the sword. History shows that no hand can hold the sword forever, for the hand must also gather the harvest of that sword—and it is at that point that collapse begins. This has happened many times throughout history, including in Islamic history, where we could not bear the sword indefinitely. In the case of the Zionist colony, the sword may very well pass into the hands of its enemies due to geographical and demographic realities—a certainty with time. And in the absence of moral values, the colony will find nothing but hatred and resentment from both near and far.

In conclusion, Israel will not emerge from this conflict as it once was. It will come out burdened with wounds, and the rest will unfold according to the laws of human social dynamics—whose end is well known and often repeated.

Dr. Khalid Naṣr

Boston 13 June 2025